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A04: MMA Bookie

This assignment uses ProbLog to model mixed martial arts fights and to predict the probability of winning.

Each fight has two fighters. Each fighter has the following attributes:

  • advanced training (yes/no)
  • height class (short, tall)
  • weight class (feather, middle, heavy)
  • age group (young, middle, old)

There are several constraints and influences on the probability of winning:

  • more likely to be feather weight if young
  • more likely to be middle/heavy weight if middle/old
  • heavy vs. feather, heavy wins
  • tall always has advantage
  • better trained always wins
  • better trained are older
  • better trained is more important than age

Write a ProbLog file, mma.pl, that represents this domain. Add evidence for at least four fighters, and write at least three queries that ask who is the most likely winner in a paired fight. Include some queries where one or both fighters are variable.

Deliverables

Submit your mma.pl file.

Grading rubric

  • 5 pts: the full domain is represented, data for four fighters is included, three queries are included, everything functions properly, and the domain is consistent and reasonable.
  • 4 pts: the domain is fully described, consistent, and reasonable, but fighter data and/or queries are incomplete.
  • 0-3 pts: the domain is only partially described, is inconsistent, or unreasonable.

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